The climatic factor of wind erosion in southern Ukraine: statistical analysis and trends in the context of climate change
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31073/acss100-04Keywords:
wind erosion; climatic parameter; wind speed; precipitation efficiency index; Sen’s slope; climate changeAbstract
Wind erosion is one of the main processes leading to soil degradation in the steppe and dry steppe regions of Ukraine and has a significant impact on the productivity of agricultural land. The climatic parameter of the WEQ mathematical model (C) allows for an assessment of the risk of wind erosion under current climate change conditions and exhibits significant regional contrasts in southern Ukraine. The maximum wind erosion potential of the climate is observed along the Black Sea and Azov Sea coasts (more than 40 units C), while the minimum values are characteristic of continental regions (less than 20 units C). These contrasts are determined by average annual wind speeds, which are highest on
the coast, as well as higher monthly air temperatures and precipitation in the southern regions. The risk of wind erosion in the region is determined not by long-term average characteristics, but by the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Therefore, when designing anti-deflation measures, a C value equal to the 90th percentile should be used. In southern Ukraine, there is a certain degree of variability in both the direction (positive or negative) and the intensity of changes
in the climatic indicator of wind erosion. The amplitude of changes in the Sen slope is 6–7 C units over 10 years.
The greatest decrease in the climatic deflation potential for the period 1980–2024 (–3 to –6 C units per decade) is observed in the coastal zone. Small positive values of the Sen slope (0 to +0.9 units C per decade), indicating a gradual increase in the climatic deflation potential, are observed in the continental regions of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Against the backdrop of stable values for the average annual wind speed, the balance between the rate of increase in the average annual temperature of this indicator and changes in annual precipitation determines this trend. Based on current projections regarding the components of the C coefficient, it is expected that the identified trends in the region will persist at least until the 2040s–2050s
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